Construction spending on buildings is projected to increase just over nine percent this year and another six percent in 2023, according to a new report from the American Institute of Architects (AIA). 

While the outlook for the broader economy has become more uncertain, the prospects for construction spending have improved since the beginning of the year. The outlook from the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel, in its mid-year update, is more optimistic than what was projected at the beginning of the year, largely due to the extremely strong gains in the manufacturing category, as well as surprising strength in retail facilities. The industrial market is expected to pace the building construction upturn this year and next, while the institutional sector is forecast to begin its recovery this year and accelerate moving into 2023. 

“The construction industry is not without its own set of challenges,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “Supply chain disruptions coupled with general inflation has pushed up inputs to construction by almost 15 percent over the past year. However, challenges to the economy and the construction industry notwithstanding, the outlook for the nonresidential building market appears promising for this year and next.”

Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts	2022	2023
Overall nonresidential building	9.1%	6.0%
Commercial total	6.7%	4.5%
Office space	2.6%	3.5%
Retail & Other Commercial	11.5%	3.2%
Hotels	-5.4%	13.8%
Industrial total	31.0%	9.9%
Institutional total	2.6%	5.5%
Healthcare facilities	5.0%	5.7%
Education	2.0%	5.2%
Religious	-8.7%	-1.1%
Public safety	-10.0%	5.5%
Amusement / recreation	7.5%	5.8%

Complete details on the latest Consensus Construction Forecast can be found on AIA’s website.