The American Institute of Architects (AIA) released their construction forecast for the rest of 2017 and 2018 a couple months ago, and it got us thinking. With the slow growth that was seen in 2017, can next year be expected to be the same, if not better?
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast panel is predicting slower growth for the construction industry for the remainder of the year, and through 2018:
“Commercial construction is expected to perform closest to prior expectations, with the 4.0 percent expected growth in spending for 2018 down less than 0.5 percentage points from the late-2016 forecast.”
According to the AIA, there are a number of factors affecting this construction outlook
Slowdown in the U.S. economy.
Construction industry concerns (labor shortage, rising interest rates, rising cost of materials, exc.)
Vulnerable construction sectors (retail, industrial, education and healthcare).
It seems like a more optimistic view is coming from architecture firms, with the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) surpassing average scores for the past two years.
“By sector, the strongest ABI numbers through the first half of the year have been coming from institutional firms, so we may finally see some progress in coming quarters in the institutional construction sector.”
Overall, it’s safe to say we’re pretty optimistic.