In their Fall Forecast shared last November, ACA’s market analysts determined the economy was on an increasingly tenuous footing, but there was not a clear stimulus for the U.S. to enter a recession. However, with the added, unpredicted start of the U.S.- Iran War in February, forecasters made a slight downward revision in their numbers. Despite this, the baseline forecast still does not expect the conflict to push the economy into a recession.

“A black swan event has come in the form of the conflict with Iran, and it’s clear the longer hostilities in the Middle East continue, the weaker the cement forecast becomes,” said Brian Schmidt, ACA’s Senior Director of Economic Policy and Analytics.

The war has produced a restive bond market, which has pushed up borrowing costs; the prevailing mortgage rate is roughly equivalent to what it was before the Fed began cutting rates last September. All of this implies another weak year for private construction. Yet, ACA’s expectations for the trajectory of cement consumption remain broadly unchanged for this year, while forecasters predict consumption will turn positive in 2027, despite growth being subdued by residual effects of 2026. 

Find out more information on ACA’s Spring Forecast.